Was the Ukrainian Children’s Hospital Attack Intentional or Accidental?
I’ve been asking myself the following question since the start of the war: When Russia hits civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, how much can be attributed to incompetence, faulty equipment, or malice?
Let’s investigate.
On Monday, July 8, Russia targeted five Ukrainian cities with over 40 missiles of different types. It was the heaviest bombardment of Kyiv in nearly four months.
One of the targets hit was the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital where at least three children died and sixteen others were injured.
Russia denied attacking the hospital and said the strikes hit only military targets.
A disinformation campaign quickly followed, particularly on X, where Russian supporters tried to push the narrative that the hospital was hit by Ukrainian air defenses.
This was quickly debunked by an investigation from Bellingcat which analyzed open-source materials to show that the hospital was hit with a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile.
I was actually working on an analysis myself to prove that it was a Russian munition that hit the hospital, not Ukrainian, but Bellingcat beat me to it.
Regardless, we reached the same conclusion.
So, instead of retreading their analysis, I think there is a more important question worth writing about today.
Why does the Russian military consistently hit civilian targets in Ukraine?
Is the Russian military grossly incompetent?
Are they victims of bad Russian technology?
Or, are they just assholes.
It could be a combination of all three, actually.
The Russians are really bad at modern war.
To understand the current Russian military dumpster fire, we first must understand what professionalism means in the profession of arms.
Broadly speaking, American military professionalism is grounded in principles like the subordination of the military to civilian authority, a commitment to political neutrality, and an ethical institutional culture. These principles are further enshrined in everyday values that all branches of the military (yes, even the Coast Guard) work hard to instill in their fighters. One of them, discipline, is paramount.
Discipline is the very foundation of successful warfighting.
Seriously… Without it, everything else that the Russians have failed at — effective communication, command and control, logistics — is all moot. This is fundamental to a competent fighting force.
Before my four years in the US Air Force, I served for six years in the US Army (four of those six years were in the infantry).
I’m not going to sugar-coat my infantry experience or look back with fond nostalgia — it sucked, plain and simple. Sure, I’m glad I did it as it gave me some very real advantages that will be with me for life: Composure under pressure, habitual goal orientation, and a diverse mindset, to name a few.
But imagine spending six hours obsessing over a uniform to ensure that every badge and insignia is positioned correctly down to the millimeter. Then imagine doing pushups until you vomit because one of your insignia was a quarter of a millimeter off.
The Army infantry’s noncommissioned officers didn’t do this simply because they were sadists — they were, but that’s beside the point. They did this to illustrate the value of “attention to detail” which is something that takes discipline to do correctly.
Discipline is arguably the very first lesson in basic training, boot camp, or service academies.
A French soldier who deployed to Afghanistan alongside US Army soldiers during the Global War on Terror was shocked at the American’s level of discipline:
“Beyond the wearing of a combat kit that never seems to discomfort them (helmet strap, helmet, combat goggles, rifles, etc.) the long hours of watch at the outpost never seem to annoy them in the slightest. On the one square meter wooden tower above the perimeter wall, they stand for five consecutive hours in full battle gear and night vision goggles, their sight unmoving in the direction of likely danger. No distractions, no pauses, they are like statues nights and days.”
–A French Soldier’s View of U.S. Soldiers in Afghanistan
From what we’re seeing in Ukraine, the Russians, on the other hand, seem to be undisciplined in terms of following orders, maintaining weapons, and using a precise amount of force when required.
Russia’s lack of discipline, either because their fighters are primarily conscripts, young, inexperienced, rushed through training, or a combination of all, shows by their utter lack of regard for life and property — not just Ukrainian life and property, but their own.
But what about the Russian aviators primarily responsible for deploying cruise missiles against Ukrainian targets?
By and large, military aviators are significantly better trained than the Russian rank and file. By necessity, it takes discipline to operate a military aircraft and release weapons on targets.
Therefore, I don’t believe Russian military incompetence is the sole reason why Russia hits civilian targets.
Bad Russian technology
Imagine my surprise when the Russians invaded Ukraine with 30–40-year-old military equipment.
When Putin took power, his early priorities were all about setting up a structure that would ensure his longevity as Russia’s leader.
But by October of 2008, he took another crack at military reform.
This new reform emphasized the need for reductions in personnel strength (quality over quantity), a gradual decrease in the use of conscripts in favor of professional soldiers, the creation of a professional NCO corps, and drastic changes to officer training and education, primarily the consolidation of 65 military schools into 10 ‘systemic’ military training centers.
This sounded good in theory, but Putin was sabotaged by his very allies — the members of the kleptocracy who grew rich beyond imagining at the expense of the Russian people.
Andrey Kozyrev, Russian foreign minister from 1990–1996, tweeted about the corruption that has hobbled the Russian military:
“The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor, you cannot report that to the President. So, they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military.”
Putin needed the corruption to aggregate absolute power to himself.
But it backfired.
That same corruption that helped him stay in power meant that his military wasn’t getting the upgrades and modernization that it desperately needed, or hell, even rations for soldiers that didn’t expire seven years ago.
The adverse impact of defense sector corruption on military effectiveness has been well documented.
More specifically, there is anecdotal evidence from Russia that everyone who worked on the Kalibr cruise missile program was arrested for treason.
Why?
Because of its gross underperformance in testing.
How bad was it? We’re talking about a 33% or lower hit rate.
So, if we assume that many Russian cruise missiles suffer from similar problems, particularly with onboard targeting — whether from bad pre-downloaded digital maps for GLONASS/INS to follow, bad electro-optical sensors, or bad infrared imaging systems — then the only way to effectively hit Ukrainian targets is to pick big buildings that don’t move.
See what I’m getting at?
Military targets are hard to hit because they have a tendency to move and use camouflage.
Russian targeting of civilian infrastructure is a necessity simply because of the limitations of their corrupt technology.
The Russian military does not value Ukrainian civilian lives, doesn’t care about committing war crimes, and sees terror as a legitimate tactic to force the Ukrainian people to sue for peace
The final question asks whether the Russian military is filled with world-class A-holes who don’t care about killing innocent people.
Unfortunately, the answer is yes.
This is partially due to the Russian culture in general.
But specifically, the Russian military sees terrorism as a legitimate military tactic — they’ve used it many times in the past.
This misguided tactic presumes that if Russia can make Ukrainian civilians hurt enough, they will petition their government for a quick resolution to the war.
This illustrates a gross misunderstanding of the Ukrainian people — hitting civilians only increases their resolve to resist.
There is one additional dimension at play here — normally, a country that abides by international norms and treaties would be cognizant of collateral damage, lest the leaders someday get hauled before the Hague for war crimes.
Russia has no such fear.
As a nuclear-armed nation, they feel empowered to wage war as they see fit. After all, as long as Putin doesn’t leave the safety of Russian territory, except for sleepovers with his BFFs in Beijing, Pyongyang, and Minsk, he’s essentially insulated from prosecution by the larger world.
So, to answer my question — does Russia hit Ukrainian civilian targets because they’re incompetent?
Vast swathes of the Russian military are indeed incompetent, but in this case, I think they know what they’re hitting.
Does Russia hit Ukrainian civilian targets because of bad Russian military tech?
Yes, I believe this is a big contributing reason.
Does Russia hit Ukrainian civilian targets because they’re assholes?
Also, yes. But this has more to do with a cultural view of life worth less than we view it in the West and the nuclear shield that protects them from prosecution.
What do you think, friends?
Was the strike on the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital intentional or accidental?
Слава Україні!
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