Ukraine Needs This Many Troops to Beat Russia in 2025

Ukraine can and will win this war — Here’s what they need to do it:

Georgian 2nd Lt. Beka Metreveli, 1st Platoon commander, stands in front of “Alpha” Company, 12th Battalion, 1st Light Infantry Brigade, during a ceremony for Exercise Noble Partner 15 at Vaziani Training Area, Georgia. Noble Partner is a field training and live-fire exercise between the US Army and the Georgian military to support Georgia’s participation in the NATO Response Force and build military ties between the two nations. (US Army Photo by Sgt. Daniel Cole, Army Europe Public Affairs) Public domain

A RAND study from 2015, right after Russia’s initial “Little Green Men” invasion of Crimea and the Donbas, sheds light on how many troops it would take to dislodge Ukraine’s persistent flea infestation.

The 2015 study envisioned a Russian invasion of the Baltics where the US counterattacks, but not for several months while NATO builds up a sufficient force. In the meantime, Russia fortifies its new holdings with minefields and tank traps — eerily similar to what they are doing in Ukraine today.

Ultimately, the study authors suggest that 14 brigades (of roughly 4,000 soldiers each) would be enough to defeat Russia — this assumes that these brigades are equipped with the latest NATO equipment and are well-supplied.

This brings up two requirements for a Ukrainian victory:

First, Ukraine must have sufficient manpower available to field a coordinated offensive army of 60,000 soldiers. The current force composition of the Ukrainian armed forces sits somewhere around 500,000 — despite recent fears that Ukraine is running low on manpower.

Still, I believe that Ukraine can find the soldiers for an offensive strike force — the quantity of soldiers isn’t the problem.