This One Map Reveals Russia’s Troop Shortage in Ukraine

Wes O'Donnell
4 min readSep 8, 2024

Why is Russia building defensive fortifications in Kursk? Because they don’t have the resources for a two-front war and they are prioritizing the Donbas.

Just a quick update today friends. I was looking at maps from the Institute for the Study of War and I saw some interesting Russian construction projects in Kursk.

Ukraine’s offensive in the Kursk region has snagged nearly 1,200 square kilometers.

The biggest thing this has forced upon Russia is a ‘two-front war’ whereby Moscow must decide where to allocate its limited manpower resources.

So, what’s the Kremlin doing about Ukraine’s Kursk incursion?

Well, instead of sending in a fresh wave of troops (spoiler: they don’t have many left), they’re building defensive lines — with conscripts.

These lines tell us something very important.

They tell us Russia does not have the capability of removing Ukrainians from Kursk — otherwise, why build semi-permanent fortifications some distance back?

Let’s break down Russia’s current construction crisis: what they’re doing, why they’re doing it, and whether it’ll work — or fall apart faster than their recruitment efforts.

The question on Putin’s mind: where to set up shop for this new defensive line? If you’ve been keeping tabs since August, you know Ukraine smashed through the previous lines near Kursk.

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Wes O'Donnell

US Army & US Air Force Veteran | Global Security Writer | Intel Forecaster | Law Student | TEDx Speaker | Pro Democracy | Pro Human | Hates Authoritarians