The Chances of Accidental Nuclear War Just Skyrocketed

Wes O'Donnell
5 min readMar 29, 2023
An unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during an operational test at 1:13 a.m. Pacific Time, Oct. 2, 2019, at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The test demonstrates the United States’ nuclear deterrent is robust, flexible, ready and approximately tailored to deter twenty-first century threats and reassure our allies. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Staff Sgt. J.T. Armstrong)

The United States and Russia have nearly stumbled into an accidental nuclear war at least ten times (that we know of).

And with 12,700 nuclear weapons worldwide — thousands on hair-trigger alert and ready to launch at a moment’s notice — an accident is statistically guaranteed to happen eventually.

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Wes O'Donnell

Army & Air Force Veteran | Global Security guy at War is Boring, GEN, OneZero | Intel Forecaster | Law Student | TEDx Speaker | Pro-Democracy | Pro-Human Rights