I Believe Putin Will Invade NATO by 2026 — Here’s Why

Sailors chain down an F-35B Lightning II attached to Marine Operational Test and Evaluation Squadron (VMX) 1 on the flight deck aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA 7), Jan. 19. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Maci Sternod) Public domain

The 1990s were a euphoric time to be alive.

The Cold War ended without bloodshed.

The US emerged as the world’s sole superpower.

Russia was a new “friend” of the West. Okay, maybe not a friend, but no longer a deadly enemy.

The US had not yet experienced September 11, 2001, (and the heavy-handed government surveillance and forever wars that came along with it).

There was no “internet angst” or “Instagram comparisons” and Seinfeld and Friends were at their peak primetime greatness.

And then things got stupid…

For many actively operating in the intelligence community, the last ten years have borne witness to a series of increasingly depressing developments coming out of Russia.

The only bright spot in Russia’s ten-year-long invasion of Ukraine, which, by the way, caught many of us by surprise, has been the poor performance of the Russian military.

By that measure, in 2022 we were downright giddy — the expectation of a lethal Russian military machine versus the reality of a force that is a mere shadow of its former Cold War might.

That, plus Ukraine’s heroic defense was, and still is, inspiring.