How F-16s Will Change the Battlefield in Ukraine

F-16C of the South Carolina Air National Guard in-flight over North Carolina equipped with air-to-air missiles, bomb rack, targeting pods, and electronic countermeasures pods. Public domain

A curious feature (or maybe a bug) of the war in Ukraine has been the limited use of airpower on both sides. Former U.S. Air Force general Philip Breedlove has described the air situation as one of “mutual denial”.

Russia’s air defenses are clearly effective at keeping Ukrainian aircraft away from the front, and Moscow, in the interest of not losing any more hardware in its quagmire, has been reluctant to risk its own aircraft much beyond the front line.

This is largely why this war draws comparisons to World War I — where the military fixed-wing aircraft made its debut. The whole point of airpower was to elevate the fight out of the mud and trenches.

Not surprisingly, in the absence of air power, the war has gone back to the trenches.

Despite the frozen airspace over Ukraine, Kyiv began a high-profile lobbying campaign for Western fighter jets in January, almost immediately after Germany and the U.S. said they would supply their own main battle tanks to Ukraine for the first time.

So, if the skies are locked down over much of Ukraine, how might U.S.-designed F-16 Falcons make a difference? Also, why is Ukraine asking specifically for the F-16 and not some other fourth-gen fighter like the F/A-18 Hornet?

To understand how F-16s will change the calculus in Ukraine, we must first look at what Ukraine is flying now and how the F-16 would represent a massive upgrade.

The Ukrainian air force is primarily fielding two Soviet-era jets: the Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker and the Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrum.

The Ukrainians entered the war with around 50 MiG-29s and an unconfirmed number of Su-27s. Ukraine inherited 74 then-new Su-27s when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Twenty-three years later, as few as 25 were in service.

Today, their count is a closely guarded secret.

Why?

The Su-27 is Ukraine’s most useful and flexible airframe, plus there are no outside sources for Ukraine to get replacements. Russia wants to destroy them, and Ukraine wants to protect them.

The combo of bort numbers and camo patterns is the quickest way to identify a specific Su-27, but the air force knows this…