Hi David, thanks for your comment. Your instincts are right - any conflict between China and the US would be catastrophic on several levels. China has been developing offensive cyber capabilities perhaps longer than any other nation on Earth. We’re not sure of the extent of those capabilities, except to say that they could be extremely disruptive. Not to mention the US infrastructure grid is woefully under protected.

Trade is another lever China could pull that would, at least temporarily, change how Americans access basic consumer goods. Technically, we’re already in a low-level trade war with China. But if they wanted to make us uncomfortable, they could by stopping all exports to the US. But it would be a self-inflicted gunshot wound as the CCP economy would suffer as well. There’s not another country on the planet that imports more Chinese consumer goods than the US.

Finally, China is facing a demographic crisis much like Russia. China has a quickly aging population thanks to the old one-child policy. Because of this, it’s my opinion that China’s economy will never surpass the US. They are going to hit a wall at some point where they just don’t have enough young people to keep the same level of economic output.

Anyway, thanks for reading.
W