Can Europe Fill the US Void in Ukraine?

Short answer? Not really. At least, not yet.

Norwegian Army Maj. Ola Tomter stands before the starting line of the Norwegian Foot March with his country’s national flag, Oct. 3, Camp Arifjan, Kuwait. Photo by Kevin Fleming
401st Army Field Support Brigade. Public domain.

With Donald Trump demanding that Europe foot more of the bill for Ukraine’s defense, the question isn’t just whether Europe can replace US military support — it’s whether it’s ready to.

And while Europe can cover some gaps, there are critical areas where Uncle Sam remains the only game in town.

The Cold, Hard Numbers

Right now, over 30% of Ukraine’s weaponry comes from the US, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Some of these systems, like the Patriot air defense missile, simply don’t have European replacements — at least not yet. COMLOG only just started building production facilities for GEM-T missiles in late 2024.

Meanwhile, NASAMS missiles, along with the AIM-9 and AIM-120 munitions that F-16s need, remain firmly in American hands.

If Trump really wanted to punish Ukraine, he could simply stop supplying the missiles the F-16 needs to fight and win. In that scenario, Ukraine would need to somehow retrofit Soviet-era missiles to American jets — a bizarre reversal from just a few months ago when the US was helping Ukraine put Western missiles on Soviet SAM launchers.

What a Goddamned nightmare.