After Bakhmut, Russia Won’t Have the Ammo to Get Very Far

Wes O'Donnell
4 min readMar 9, 2023
Photo by Joseph Hersh on Unsplash

Both the Russians and Ukrainians claim that if Russia takes Bakhmut, it could open the door to a broader Russian land grab.

But U.S. intelligence officials aren’t so sure.

Although it might not seem like it in light of Russia’s recent missile barrage last night, Russia is facing a severe ammunition shortage.

The head of Russia’s notorious Wagner mercenary group Yevgeniy Prigozhin made headlines last month when he accused Russia’s top brass of committing “treason” by intentionally depriving his fighters in eastern Ukraine of ammunition supplies.

This stunt got him banned from all official Kremlin channels — which tells me that he must have struck a nerve.

Then he ordered his men to prepare to assault with “shovels.” By shovels, he really means the MPL-50 entrenching tool — the E-Tool is a standard issue for every infantryman in every army around the world.

Even in the U.S., we briefly trained on how to fight with our E-Tool or Kevlar helmet in the unlikely event we were to run out of ammo.

But testifying in Washington this week before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence, argued that Russia lacked the troops and the ammunition to make major…

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Wes O'Donnell

US Army & US Air Force Veteran | Global Security Writer | Intel Forecaster | Law Student | TEDx Speaker | Pro Democracy | Pro Human | Hates Authoritarians